Newsprint prices in the hottest global market are

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Paper prices in the global market are in the doldrums

the new year has not brought new weather to the global paper market. The first action of the European market at the beginning of the year was the price reduction of some manufacturers. The price of paper in North America and Asia is on thin ice. Most people in the industry place their hopes on the next standard electronic grade copper foil with a thickness of 12~70 microns for half a year, and hope that the paper market can turn around in 2002

European market

the weakness of the global economy has led to a continuous decline in the market demand for paper. In recent months, new European markets have continued to be under pressure and have stagnated in the current downturn. Like other markets, Europe is also facing the severe problem of shrinking newspaper advertising and sharp decline in press paper usage caused by the economic recession. Since the second quarter of 2001, European publishing houses have tightened their money and reduced their costs due to the reduction of advertising revenue. Paper producers have no choice but to attract a small number of same goods transactions by slashing prices. The paper inventory of publishing houses is increasing

manufacturers also believe that the European paper market did not show a good start in early 2002. Manufacturers hope that the paper price will rise significantly in the summer, but they also admit that to stabilize the paper price, some manufacturers must reduce the output of paper or stop producing paper during this period. Only when the output is significantly reduced and the supply is tight, can the price of paper find support and the market recover

North American market

after the trading price of paper fell by $21 per ton in January, the price of paper in North American market continued to fall in the two weeks from January 31 to February 13, falling by $11.71 per ton to $472.30 per ton on February 6 and $460.59 per ton on February 13

although the paper price continues to fall, analysts see hope from the current situation of pulp inventory on the demand side (in December last year, the stock of paper warehouse of publishing houses increased by 16000 tons, but it is significantly lower than the normal increase of 28000 tons), and they expect that the decline in paper price can stop in a few months and remain stable for a period of time. They believe that the price of raw materials for paper usually rises in the summer, so the price of paper is expected to rise slightly in the second half of this year

as the current paper price is close to the cost price, traders believe that the decline of paper price will not be too large, and manufacturers can only choose to reduce production at the current price. This may also be seen from the fact that the paper machine operation rate of the manufacturer was only 78% in December last year, and the inventory fell by 20% (92000 tons) in that month

after Abitibi and Bowater, the giants of North American paper, announced a total production reduction of 340000 tons in the first quarter in early February, on February 13, Smurfit paper company of the United States announced that it had taken shutdown measures for the first time since 1992 due to market reasons, and was scheduled to reduce the supply of 3000 tons of paper from March 4 to 7. The company produces 150000 tons of paper per year. However, the production reduction of manufacturers cannot address both symptoms and root causes. What the paper market needs most is economic recovery

this is a unique mechanical action

Asian market

during the week from January 31 to February 6, due to the economic recession in Asia, the number of advertisements published in newspapers decreased, newspapers tightened costs, and the market demand for paper continued to decline. The Lunar New Year holiday exacerbated the market depression, and the price of paper continued to decline during the week. The CIF quotation of standard paper shipped to major Asian ports fell from US $per ton last week to US $per ton, which means that the price of Asian paper has fallen by US $40 per ton in the first quarter of 2002

insiders believe that the first quarter is the off-season of the Asian paper market, and the decline in paper prices is still expected. Paper producers in the Asian market will pay close attention to post holiday paper consumption

some market analysts are optimistic about the Asian paper market in the second quarter and believe that the world cup jointly held by Japan and South Korea in June this year will stimulate the development of the paper industry. Many publishing houses currently have low paper inventories, so they are bound to replenish their paper inventories during the publishing peak of the world cup

according to suppliers, the economic outlook in Asia has improved. The economies of Taiwan, China, South Korea and Malaysia have also shown signs of steady growth, and the economies of Hong Kong and Singapore have also risen slightly. However, if the paper market in the United States and Europe continues to stand still, it will inevitably have a negative impact on Asia, because the demand situation in the United States and Europe has not improved as mentioned in the third category of impact, and there continues to be an oversupply, then the Asian market is likely to become the final sales place of their excess paper, and the Asian market will also have a crisis at that time

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