The hottest recovery of China's construction machi

Recovery of China's construction machinery industry: V-shaped or U-shaped

recovery of China's construction machinery industry: V-shaped or U-shaped

China Construction machinery information

Guide: the impact of the financial storm on China's economy has not gone away with the end of 2008. The construction machinery industry, which has been growing at a super high speed for several consecutive years, has finally had to stop and breathe. When will the financial storm pass? Will China's economy rise again in 2009? The government guarantees growth, expands domestic demand

the impact of the financial storm on China's economy has not gone away with the end of 2008. The construction machinery industry, which has been growing at a super high speed for several consecutive years, has finally had to stop and breathe

when will the financial storm pass? Will China's economy rise again in 2009? When can the government "maintain growth, expand domestic demand, adjust structure" and various market rescue measures work? When will the world market recover? Where is the way out for enterprises

up to now, there has been an endless debate between the two views of U-shaped or V-shaped recovery in the construction machinery industry. Here, I believe that the view of V-shaped recovery is too optimistic, and the current financial storm has not yet bottomed out; The U-shaped recovery may be more reasonable, but I don't know how long it will take at the bottom

the industry has been severely affected

construction machinery is an intermediate industry. Unlike other industries, it is suffering from the financial storm at both ends. On the one hand is the depression of the market, on the other hand is the sharp rise and fall of raw materials

analyze the main markets of the construction machinery industry - real estate, infrastructure construction, mining, etc. except that infrastructure construction is rarely affected by market factors, other markets are also affected very obviously

the use of construction machinery products in the real estate industry can account for nearly half of the total sales, but at present, the real estate industry is one of the most severely affected industries. The sharp decline in housing prices across the country is extremely beneficial evidence. It is also reported that many construction sites that cannot continue construction are left in the bustling urban area of Dubai, which is a microcosm of the downturn in the overseas real estate market. How to effectively save the property market is a very difficult topic. In 2008, before the real estate industry was so severely affected, the state and some local governments have given preferential policies, but still failed to stop the continuous decline of house prices. In this regard, the construction machinery industry is bound to be greatly affected

in addition, as a link of raw material supply, mines are the source of many industries and one of the most sensitive industries to the economic environment. At present, some mines have taken measures to stop mining or reduce mining volume, which will greatly affect their purchase of equipment, not only construction machinery, but also the demand for heavy machinery and other industrial products

at the same time, the sharp rise and fall of raw materials in 2008 also made enterprises a little overwhelmed. Especially since September and October 2008, the price of raw materials has fallen rapidly, and most enterprises have prepared goods at the high level in the middle of the year, which has greatly squeezed the profit space. At present, although the price of raw materials has been reduced, some enterprises are still digesting the previous raw material inventory and are unable to stock up. It can be seen that the treatment of this internal injury is by no means overnight

4trillion yuan investment pull is limited

when the figure of "4trillion yuan" was just put forward, it really excited many people - how can the economic situation not be greatly improved with such a huge amount of investment? Many V-shaped recovery views are based on this

however, we must carefully analyze this 4trillion yuan

first of all, how much of the 4trillion yuan is new investment? This data is not available yet, but the general view is that many investment projects have been planned long ago, even if they are not launched this year, It will also "happen naturally" in a few years ". in other words, the new opportunities are not 4trillion yuan, but much less than 4trillion yuan.

secondly, 4trillion yuan investment can stimulate the development of cross-linked high molecular materials, and make the linear high molecular chain into a network structure through cross-linking agents. How big is the development of the construction machinery industry? According to Han Xuesong, chairman of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, this 4trillion yuan investment will drive the sales of the construction machinery industry by 100billion yuan. As it will be boosted As one of the nine major industries in Xingxing, the equipment manufacturing industry can get 1/40 of the benefits, which is quite a lot. However, Han Xuesong also pointed out that this 100 billion yuan can not be achieved in 2009, but generated in the whole process of 4trillion yuan investment, that is to say, it will take several years to accumulate

last but not least, when will the 4trillion yuan investment affect the construction machinery industry? Especially in the current special environment, all the money must be used to (4) maximize the braking force. It takes a lot of time from the proposal, declaration, demonstration to the specific implementation of the project. Wang Ziguang, general manager of Komatsu (China) investment company, said that according to his experience, these investments are likely to be effective in the industry until June this year. In other words, the enterprise still has nearly half a year to suffer. Even if it is optimistic, it will take at least three months

another very important point is that construction machinery products should serve the construction, logistics and other industries, that is to say, only when these industries have new needs, can they fundamentally stimulate the development of construction machinery industry

the international environment cannot be heated up in time

so as to control the flow into the oil cylinder

the International Monetary Fund and the world bank, the two major international financial institutions, recently predicted that the world economic growth rate would be reduced to 2.2% and 0.9% respectively, far lower than the annual growth rate in 2008. In other words, the financial storm did not leave with the end of 2008, but will continue to rage around the world. The construction machinery industry will not be detached from the economic environment, and will inevitably suffer more severe tests

engineering plastics can be divided into general engineering plastics and special engineering plastics

for China's construction machinery industry, the domestic market situation is relatively good, but the overall sales situation still shows a sharp decline. The reason is not difficult to find that export is an important pillar of the development of China's construction machinery industry, especially for some enterprises, whose export accounts for more than half of the total sales

in fact, at present, the demand for China's construction machinery products in the overseas market is still large, but due to the sharp decline in purchasing power, it shows that the export orders of enterprises have decreased significantly. In addition, at present, China's construction machinery enterprises basically do not have the ability to deliver the machines first and extend the payment time; And no one can guarantee whether the payment for goods can be collected or when. The combination of these reasons will inevitably lead to a solid fall in the overseas market

although the United States and other countries are also brewing government bailouts, the global financial crisis cannot be prevented by the power of a single country. For China's construction machinery industry, the main market is in developing countries, which have not enough capacity to stimulate the market in the form of government investment. In the Middle East, which has become a new growth point in recent years, the serious plunge in oil prices has also completely exposed the defects that these countries do not have an industrial economy, and their purchasing power has also been greatly reduced. In addition, small quantities of toys, clothes and other products can be flexibly converted to domestic sales when export is difficult to achieve, but small quantities of construction machinery are not so easy. Even if it is feasible, the domestic market cannot absorb such a large number of products. Therefore, if the construction machinery industry wants to recover to the previous high-speed development trend, the recovery of the international market is crucial