The hottest soda ash is in the doldrums and contin

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Soda ash: the overall downturn continues to bottom

the upstream and downstream of soda ash are in a very difficult period as a whole. Affected by the decline in the prices of raw coal and raw salt in the upstream and the downturn in the glass and real estate markets in the downstream, the ton price of soda ash has fallen to 1200-1300 yuan. It is expected that the market price of soda ash will continue to bottom out, and may reach 1100 yuan or even lower. This situation can be ended only when downstream products resume growth or several soda ash production enterprises withdraw from production in the competition

the upstream and downstream industrial chains of the soda ash industry are in a weak state this year. Statistics show that at present, the average ex factory price of domestic light soda ash has fallen to 1231 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the average ex factory price of heavy soda ash has fallen to 1322 yuan, while manufacturers are more bearish in the future. Therefore, for the future price of soda ash, many interviewees said that the soda ash industry is closely related to the overall development situation of the national economy, and the downstream real estate industry is depressed, the demand is difficult to start, and the price of soda ash is difficult to rise. If the GDP growth rate declines again, the price of soda ash will have to decline. Only when downstream products resume growth, or several soda ash production enterprises withdraw from production in the competition, the market price of soda ash is expected to stabilize and rebound

Wang Xiling, President of China Soda Ash Industry Association, told that the main factor for the low price of domestic soda ash was still the old contradiction between overcapacity and lower downstream demand. At present, the domestic soda ash production capacity is far greater than the demand. "Our output this year is almost the same as that of last year, and there is no increase until its accuracy reaches 0.02%, but the situation reflected in the market is still that production exceeds sales. Moreover, the contradiction between supply and demand now shows different characteristics from the past, and the nature has changed." Wang Xiling stressed, "in previous years, the growth rate of the soda ash industry was too fast, with an annual growth rate of 5% - 10%, and the amount of production increase was too large. That is to say, we 'ran too fast', and the downstream simply couldn't keep up and use up. But now, even if our output didn't increase or even reduce, our output is still greater than sales, because the decline of demand is faster."

Wang Xiling said that last year, nine enterprises in the soda ash industry were shut down, and the annual production capacity was reduced by 2.53 million tons. Although the output has been reduced, affected by the reduction of real estate investment and construction area this year, glass production enterprises are facing the dilemma of low price and no profit, the growth rate of production capacity slows down, and the production lines that have stopped production continue to increase, resulting in the continuous decline in the demand for heavy soda ash for flat glass. Affected by the slowdown of export and domestic demand growth, the demand for light soda is also declining. Although the production capacity of soda ash is decreasing, the impact of the reduction in demand cannot be offset

the main downstream user of soda ash is glass, which is mainly affected by the real estate market. According to insiders, there are rumors that "the inventory of the existing real estate market is enough to sell for eight years". According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the area of commercial housing for sale has increased to 686.32 million square meters by the end of October this year, an increase of 14% year-on-year, hitting a new record high. The current situation of housing stock has led to a decline in its demand for the glass industry. The phenomenon of oversupply in the glass industry is also very serious. After the shutdown of Zhejiang Glass Group in 2013, China Resources Glass Industry Co., Ltd. also stopped production and liquidation on October 20 this year, and all its 20 float glass production lines stopped production. However, the shutdown of China Resources has not brought much relief to the overcapacity situation, and as an enterprise with glass and soda ash industry chain, its soda ash plant has also stopped, which will not have a great impact on the supply of soda ash industry

sunxinde, chairman of the trade union of Qingdao Soda Industry Co., Ltd., told that the price of soda ash is so low now. First, the market environment is bad. Because glass is a major energy consumer, some local governments restrict local glass production in order to achieve the energy-saving goal of the 12th Five Year Plan. Second, environmental protection. Recently, the haze in some parts of China is relatively serious, and the pollution in the process of glass production is relatively prominent. In addition, the market is not good, so the government in some regions ordered to stop some glass production lines

the decline in raw material prices has also seriously affected the price of soda ash. Shangjianzhuang, a senior engineer of the petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning Institute, said that since the end of 2014, the prices of raw materials such as coal and raw salt have been low, of which the price of thermal coal is 300 ~ 400 yuan, and the price of raw salt remains near the cost line, which is one of the main reasons for the current low price of soda ash. In addition, after the 1million ton/year soda plant of Qinghai Salt Lake Co., Ltd. was put into operation at the end of 2014, the operating rate remained at about 25%. In October 2015, the 400000 ton/year soda plant of Fujian Tianchen Yaolong was relocated and put into operation, the 600000 ton/year soda plant of Jiangsu Zhongyan Kunshan was relocated and reconstructed, and the 600000 ton/year soda plant of Jiangxi Jinghao salt industry is expected to be put into operation in 2016. The successive release of the above soda ash production capacity will lead to the continuation of the phenomenon of oversupply in the industry

a relevant person from a soda ash enterprise in Henan said that at present, the demand for ammonium chloride has entered the off-season, and the market price will continue to bottom out. If the market price of ammonium chloride can be guaranteed to be more than 500 yuan and the price of soda ash is 1100 yuan, the joint soda enterprises with good production management can also run with principal guaranteed. If ammonium chloride continues to reduce prices and the price of soda ash does not rise, more enterprises will suffer losses, and the market will force some enterprises to reduce production and stop production, thus raising the price of soda ash. Therefore, from the perspective of the comprehensive cost of two tons, the price of soda ash has reached the bottom line

in addition to domestic factors, there will also be external influences in the future. It is understood that the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic market is relatively prominent, and we could have hoped for exports. But now foreign countries are also building soda ash production enterprises. At present, some soda plants in Vietnam, Turkey, Iran and other countries have been built, and some are under construction. Among them, the scale of the alkali plant under construction in Turkey is 1million tons/year, the capacity of the first phase of two alkali plants in Iran is also 200000 ~ 300000 tons/year, and the second phase of an alkali plant in Uzbekistan is also under construction. Moreover, the design of intelligent electronic tensile testing machines in Vietnam and Ukraine integrates the control technology and shape design of advanced experimental equipment. The second phase of the zabekstan alkali plant is about to be completed, and the Iranian alkali plant has been put into operation. In the future, it may affect China's exports to these countries, and further affect the increase of soda price

global glass () Department

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