The hottest soda ash market recovery in the South

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The recovery of soda ash market in South China focuses on Shandong Haihua

recently, the price of soda ash in South China has risen slightly, with an increase of about 50 yuan/ton. We judge that this phenomenon reflects the gradual improvement of downstream demand for soda ash Affected by the transportation radius, the production of flat glass in Guangdong, Hubei and other provinces increased significantly year-on-year, leading to the first recovery of the soda ash market in the south

in September, China's soda ash output reached 1.7536 million tons, the highest level in history, with a month on month increase of 11%, a year-on-year increase of 9.24%, and the operating rate reached 87.68% We expect soda ash production to remain high in the fourth quarter

the new construction area of real estate in October was 82 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of more than 50%. The completed area in October was 43 million square meters, at a high level in the year The flat glass industry is still in a high boom cycle. About 30% of the 40 production lines that stopped production in the early stage have resumed work, and other production lines are also resuming work in succession More than 20 production lines under construction will also be released in February. On the contrary, the higher the hardness, the higher the hardness will be in the second quarter of 2010

we predict that the growth rate of flat glass production in 2009 and 2010 will be 5.5% and 10% respectively. The growth rate of demand for soda ash in other industries is commensurate with the growth rate of GDP, which are 8.3% and 8.5% respectively. In 2010, the apparent consumption of soda ash will reach 19.55 million tons, and the estimated net export volume of 2.5 million tons. In 2010, the output of soda ash is expected to reach 22.05 million tons We predict that the actual production capacity in 2010 will be 24.5 million tons, and the operating rate of the corresponding industry will reach 90%

with the recovery of demand, but due to the high price, the profit trend of soda ash industry has formed We expect the average operating rate of the industry to be 90% in 2010, which means that the soda ash industry will return to a fair gross profit margin (such as in), rather than a rapid and sharp rise in prices (such as in 2007) We determine that the gross profit margin of the industry in 2010 is about% If the recovery rate of demand for soda ash in other industries except the flat glass industry, such as zinc borate and antimony trioxide flame retardant, exceeds our expectations, the profits of the soda ash industry will be greatly improved

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